Monday, February 4, 2013

Passed

Congratulations! We are very pleased to inform you that you passed the December 2012 Level I CFA exam. 37% of candidates passed the December 2012 Level I CFA exam.

You are one step closer to achieving your goal of earning the globally respected CFA charter. Registration for the June 2013 Level II CFA exam will be available tomorrow, 23 January after 9:00 a.m. ET on the CFA Institute website(Please note that you must have a valid international travel passport to register. Learn more about the identification policy.)

A summary of your exam results is provided below. The three columns on the right are marked with asterisks to indicate your performance on each topic area.

Please contact us if you have questions or comments about the CFA Program.

Multiple Choice
Q#TopicMax Pts<=50%51%-70%>70%
-Alternative Investments8--*
-Corporate Finance20--*
-Derivatives12--*
-Economics24--*
-Equity Investments24--*
-Ethical & Professional Standards36--*
-Financial Reporting & Analysis48--*
-Fixed Income Investments28--*
-Portfolio Management12-*-
-Quantitative Methods28-*-

Saturday, December 1, 2012

It...is...FINISHED!!!

Just returned from the test center!

More musings to come at a later date, but for now, very pleased with the exam, and even more pleased that it is OVER!!!  I can have my life back!!!

Having a nice dinner tonight with a great friend and my wonderful fiance - and lots of wine - and a nice Cuban cigar!

Cheers
frgna

Wednesday, November 21, 2012

10 Days to Go

Continuing to chug through my final review, I've plotted out the next ten days so I can get a thorough re-read through the LOS for each chapter, do practice questions for each section (either a set of 50 or 100 depending of if it is a large or small topic), and then will do 3 mock exams and see where I sit.  I've got the 2010, 2011 and 2012 CFAI mocks which should be a good gauge.

Overall I am feeling pretty good though this is also a stressful time for us dealing with moving, immigration/work visa issues, and with lots of travel coming up in the near future.

My final review approach has generally basically been this:
  • Pick a topic (fixed income, econ, etc)
  • Use the online SchweserPro (aka Qbank) and click to the LOS
  • Check through each LOS one by one - Schweser gives you a very broad brushstrokes for each LOS right on the screen
  • Click by the LOS you know well (some are very short/easy), write the ones you don't know well, and study the ones you need to know formulas for
  • Finish going through all LOS and write any further questions you have
  • Do a set of 50 or 100 problems on that topic, and then review all mistakes and uncertainties
Sometimes a topic takes a day, sometimes two or three days.  So far I have worked through Economics, FSA, fixed income, and alternative investments, and am averaging in the 80+ percent range when drilling the topics alone, after having reviewed them.  I'm curious to see how this will translate over when I need to do each topic later on, and in combination with the other topics.  Over the next few days I'll finish doing the same for equity, quant, corp fin, derivatives and portfolio management.

I plan to take my first mock exam this Saturday at 10 am - precisely one week before the real thing - and this should show me any weak areas.  Then I will work on the weaknesses, and take another mock.  

After that, I plan to review ethics - exhaust the ~500 questions in the Qbank (have already done 100, scoring 75% exactly) - to make sure I have those down (the best way to do ethics is just drill all the questions - there are only so many good, testable scenarios/situations and many of them repeat).  Assuming sufficient time I think I will also look over the blue box examples in the CFAI Ethics materials.

Can't wait until this is all over.

Thursday, November 15, 2012

Exam Instructions

Thought it might be interesting/useful for people to see what you can/cannot do at the actual exam on test day.  This is the pre-screen for when you go to print your exam admission ticket.  Credit to CFAI.

____________

Before accessing your exam admission ticket you must read and agree to the following:
You are required, without exception, to adhere to all published testing policies and follow all instructions announced on exam day.
BEFORE EXAM DAY
You are strongly encouraged to visit your test center before exam day. Directions and special instructions are available for most test centers. It is your responsibility to read and understand all information about your test center.
Many local CFA Institute member societies host events at the test center or after the exam.

ON EXAM DAY You must attend both the morning and afternoon sessions or your exam will not be graded and you will not receive results. If you do not sit for the morning session, you will not be permitted to sit for the afternoon session.
You must report to the test center at least one hour before each session in order to be checked in and seated. The testing room doors will be closed prior to the start of each session for reading the instructions and late candidates will not be allowed to enter the testing room until after the exam begins. Instructions will not be repeated and no additional testing time will be granted for candidates who are admitted after the start of the exam.
The following items must remain on your desk at all times. No exceptions will be made to these rules:
1. Exam Admission Ticket: Print one copy of your admission ticket on clean, unused paper. You will not be permitted to enter the testing room without a valid ticket.
2. Identification: CFA Institute requires an international travel passport from every candidate. In order for your passport to be considered valid it must meet all of the following criteria: 1) Be a current (not expired) international travel passport. 2) Include a recognizable photograph on the passport data page. 3) Contain your name, date of birth, passport number, expiration date, and country of issuance. 4) Exactly match the information you provided to CFA Institute. 5) Be an original document. Photocopies will not be accepted. You will not be permitted to sit for the exam with an invalid passport. Failure by proctors to detect an invalid passport does not imply the passport is valid or that your results will ultimately be reported. This policy applies to all new and returning candidates.
3. Calculator: You may use only the Texas Instruments BAII Plus (including the BAII Plus Professional) and/or the Hewlett Packard 12C (including the HP 12C Platinum, 12C Platinum 25th anniversary edition, 12C 30th anniversary edition, and HP 12C Prestige) during the exam. No other calculators are permitted. Possession or use of an unauthorized calculator at the test center will result in CFA Institute voiding your exam results and may lead to suspension or termination of your candidacy in the CFA Program. Calculator covers are permitted in the testing room. The Texas Instruments BAII Plus cover contains a keystroke card; the Hewlett Packard 12C has keystrokes printed on the back of the calculator. You may refer to these keystroke instructions during the exam. CFA Institute advises you to place fresh batteries in your calculator on the day before the exam.
4. Writing Instruments: You must bring your own writing instruments on exam day; testing personnel will not provide these to candidates. You must dispose of any packaging before entering the testing room. You must bring your own sharpened No. 2 or HB pencils and Level III candidates (June exam only) must also bring pens (with blue or black ink) for the essay portion of the exam. Pencil sharpeners will not be provided at the test center.
The following items may be kept on your desk, if needed: loose calculator batteries (no packaging) and screwdriver for battery replacement, earplugs, erasers, with no paper holder or cover, eyeglasses, but not the eyeglasses case, pencil sharpeners (no knives), and wristwatches (analog and digital are acceptable); however, audible alarms and/or audible timers must be turned off.
The following items are permitted in the testing room but must remain in your pockets or under your chair when not in use: wallet (money purse), medicine, tissues, and other necessary medical or personal items, gum, hard candy, cough drops, eyeglasses case.
The following items are not permitted in the testing room: food and drinks; baggage of any kind, including transparent bags, backpacks, handbags, tote bags, briefcases, luggage, carrying cases, or pencil cases; study materials, including notes, papers, textbooks, or study guides; scratch paper, present/future value tables, or calculator manuals; highlighters, correction fluid, correction tape, or rulers; knives of any type, including box cutters; mobile phones, MP3 players, cameras, pagers, headsets, computers, electronic organizers, personal data assistants, or any other remote communication or photographic devices; any type of desk clock or timer.
Proctors and security personnel may ask to inspect your belongings at check-in to ensure that prohibited items are not carried into the testing room. Please comply with these requests.
IMPORTANT EXAM RULES TO REMEMBER You are bound by the CFA Institute Code of Ethics and Standards of Professional Conduct (Code and Standards). To comply with the Code and Standards during the exam administration process, you must conduct yourself in a respectful and dignified manner and adhere to published testing policies, proctors' verbal instructions, and the candidate pledge printed on each morning session exam book or answer sheet. It is important that you remember to read and sign the pledge. Rules have been disseminated in various formats, including registration information, and the website. Failure to follow any of the CFA Institute published rules will result in cancellation of your scores and may lead to disciplinary sanction:
• You must not: bring prohibited personal belongings into the testing room; speak to anyone other than a proctor during the exam; glance or look at another candidate’s exam or give the appearance of doing so; continue to write or erase after time is called; open the exam book until instructed to do so by the proctor; write on anything other than your exam book or answer sheet, including your exam admission ticket; remove exam materials from the testing room; leave the testing room during the final 30 minutes of the exams except for brief toilet breaks; exit and re-enter the designated testing area during the exams, except during the lunch break; create a disturbance; fail to follow the directions of testing personnel; or share information about exam content with anyone else, including other candidates.
• You must: bring only one copy of your admission ticket printed on clean, unused paper to the test center; give your exam materials and photo identification to the proctor before leaving the testing room for brief toilet breaks; remain seated at the conclusion of the exams until all materials have been collected and reconciled.
By clicking “I agree” below:
I attest that I have read, understood, and agreed to follow the above conditions, requirements, policies, and procedures for the CFA Program. Further, I understand that a violation of any rules and regulations of the CFA Program will result in CFA Institute voiding my exam results and may lead to suspension or termination of my candidacy in the CFA Program.

16 days to go

About quarter to 1 am on a Thursday night.

Lately an average day has been waking between 9 and noon, and then studying with fairly minimal breaks until midnight or later, meaning the studying is around 12 hours a day.

At this point I have made a calendar so I can go back through each topic, in order of weakest to strongest, and go through the LOS in the online Qbank and work through the practice problems.  I'm also hoping to be able to go over the end of chapter questions, however the priority is on the qbank for now as I feel like the EOCs tend to be more involved in some cases than what one would see on the exam, though they are great for building understanding on weaker areas.

I'm currently working through FR&A, which is a major portion of the CFA and one of my weaker subjects.  I'm finding the second time through the materials to be very helpful in firming things up, and now that I've done more practice questions I realize every single detail in the Schweser Notes is important.  Basically I am cruising through the Schweser Notes once again and writing down any details that I want to firm up.

I finished ethics and Econ just before this, and Econ was a huge pain because I was working off of the 2010 Schweser notes, without knowing that the CFAI totally revamped the econ section - so many of the sections I had to learn for the first time.  I was dying for a fresh Schweser book at that point but I managed to muddle through the CFAI materials for both Micro and Macro in about 3 days.  Exchange rates is a really painful chapter so I am hoping the Qbank LOS and review can help me there.

I'm averaging a wide band in the Qbank quizzes, from 60-80+ percent - so I am around the range, but I think with more and more practice you find your weak topics and fill in the areas.  Practicing with the Qbank has been invaluable.  It is like having a tutor there to explain how to do the problems and what the important topics are, as well as tricks to look out for.  CFA problems require alot of memorization, yes, but also common sense and a good deal of analytical thinking to see what they are trying to ask and what they are looking for you to do, quickly.  This just comes with time.

I'll say that just reviewing the Schweser materials for the first time, you don't really get a grasp on how important each little bullet and note is.  I'd recommend first time CFAers get their hands on a mock exam first thing, before looking at any materials, to get an idea of the depth and breadth of knowledge you will need to do well.

Ok, back to studying.

Saturday, November 10, 2012

Update and some study tips on the LOS

21 days to go time.

I'm now in the process of going back over all of the material topic by topic, and drilling by doing practice problems.  I ordered Schweser's Quicksheet, which is a great 3 panel 2 sided summary of key formulas and concepts, and the SchweserPro online question bank which should also help firm things up a bit.

Ethics continues to be difficult - apparently the key to nailing ethics is just repetition.  Lots and lots and lots of practice questions and analysing every answer and reasons for it.  CFAI tends to try and find the one exception to the rule so that something that seems like it is clearly wrong or even unjust will actually be allowable under the rules.

With such a large body of knowledge to absorb, the task can seem a bit daunting but I've found comfort recently in the following key statement:

CFAI are actually very specific and realistic when it comes to what you need to know in detail, and what you just need to know in general.

The Learning Objective Statements, which I at first mostly ignored, are actually a key way to figure out how test examiners approach the topics.  While the CFAI materials themselves will go into detailed math about oscillation methods of technical analysis, for example, the LOS only says "describe common technical analysis indicators: price based, momentum oscillators, sentiment, flow of funds."  This means that a test write SHOULD only be able to ask you to DESCRIBE each of these, and not ask you to calculate or interpret.  CFAI even go so far as to define what each of the words like describe, analyze, calcuate, etc. mean in terms of the LOS and what is expected of candidates.

This is why the SchweserNotes are built around the LOS.

So at this point, my strategy is to go back through all the LOS - CFAI has a handy PDF that puts them all in a 51 page document - and simply mark off the ones I feel comfortable with, and note the ones I need more work on or that require formula memorization.  Historically - Schweser says - the CFA level I is not so much about making you remember formulas as it is about understanding the concepts.  This seems to agree with the LOS.

Back to studying.

Wednesday, October 31, 2012

Investing in Commodities

Contango - futures price is above the spot price.  "Long hedger" will buy a futures to protect against unexpected price increases.  Long hedgers bid up the price of commodity futures, and paying a premium for the hedging benefit they get from taking long future positions.

Backwardation - futures price is below the spot price.  Dominant traders are producers who are hedging against future price declines in the future.  These are typically the case, so this is often called 'normal backwardation.'

Risk and Return of Commodities and Effect on Portfolios
Investor will typically get exposure to a commodity through derivatives (forward or future).
To take a position an investor must post collateral.  If treasuries are the collateral, the collateral yield is the yield on the T-bills.  Active management on the collateral (within bounds) can increase the yield.

The price return on a long investment can be positive or negative.  Depends on direction of change in the spot price for the commodity over the life of the derivative.

Since contracts expire you need to close out and re-establish if you want to maintain exposure.  This is called 'rolling over' the position and leads to gains/losses called the roll yield.  Futures price at expiration must equal the spot price at that time.  In backwardation, roll yield is positive.  In contango, roll yield is negative.

Adding a long commodities position to a portfolio can be great for pension fund portfolios - they tend to not be correlated with equities (good diversification) and can serve as a hedge against inflation.

Commodities indexes are an active strategy because it is necessary to re-establish positions to maintain the same exposure.  Managers add value by choosing the maturities of the contracts they buy and by their decisions about when to roll over.  If many long-only investors roll at the same time they pay a premium in transaction costs, reducing both roll yield and overall yield of the index strategy.

Another aspect of active management has to do with weighting.  Weightings of commodities don't necessarily change with the changes in the prices of futures.  Must actively manage this as positions are rolled over.  Additionally, the short term debt used to collateralize positions must be managed.  These debt securities mature and can be replaced with better ones based on market conditions.

Alternative Investments

Open Ended Fund - fund stands ready to redeem shares at closing value at end of any day - fund provides liquidity.  Load is the fee at purchase or redemption.  Ongoing fees (annual).

Closed end fund - shares traded in secondary markets.  Liquidity provided by open market.  Issued slightly above value of underlying assets to serve as a premium for issuance costs.  Load/no load are NOT applicable here.  Redemption cost is just the commission charged on the sale and portion of the bid/ask spread for shares.

Net Asset Value = assets minus liabilities, on a per share basis

Open end - share price will always equal NAV (company is obligated to redeem at NAV)

Closed end - share price does not have to equal NAV - can be at premium or discount

Fees
  • Fees are basically compensation for sales and marketing, but NOT for performance
  • Annual ongoing fees go to cover management fees (largest), administrative, and distribution fees
  • Expense ratio = operating expenses / average assets
  • Fees can significantly impact performance
  • Holding period is an important determinant of what impact fees will have
To find the most advantageous structure for a given time frame, see what happens to $10,000 invested at each type of investment.

Equity Investment Strategies


  • Style - describes basic characteristics of underlying assets.  Growth vs. value, large cap vs. small cap etc.
  • Sector - concentrates investments in a certain industry
  • Index - strives to match the return of a particular stock index
  • Global Fund - invest all over the world
  • Stable Value Fund - short term govt securities, or other instruments with timely principal payments and a set interest rate
ETF - special type of fund.  Invests in a portfolio of stocks or bonds and is designed to mimic the performance of a specified index.   Trade in secondary market.  But legally they are very different from open end mutual funds in how they are created and redeemed.

  • Unique feature - 'in kind' creation and redemption of shares.  "Authorized participants" have the ability to create new shares in the ETF by depositing with a trustee a portfolio of stocks that track the index.  Participant then receives new ETF shares from the trustee and can sell these shares in the open market.  Can also do the converse and redeem shares to the trustee in exchange for the underlying stocks.
  • Advantages: 1) keeps market prices close to NAV (arbitrage mechanism) and 2) tax advantage for in-kind redemption - capital gains are not realized until sale.  That means existing fund shareholders don't incur a tax liability
Advantages of ETFs
  • Diversification
  • Similar to equity investments - can trade any time, can margin/short
  • Risk management through access to indices where options are traded
  • Investors know composition of investments at all times (published daily)
  • Lower operating expenses than traditional funds (passively managed and no loads)
  • In kind creation ensures NAV = share prices or close if liquid
  • Less capital gains tax liability
  • For some, dividends may be reinvested immediately as opposed to index funds where these may be delayed
Disadvantages
  • Outside the US, fewer indices for ETFs to track - mid/low caps are underrepresented
  • Ability to trade intraday might not be that big an asset
  • For ETFs with low trading volume the bid/ask spread may be higher
  • Larger investors may just directly invest in an index portfolio resulting in lower expenses and lower tax consequences
Risks of ETFs
  • Market risk of the index tracked
  • Might only invest in one part of the market
  • Trading prices can differ from NAV depending on liquidity
  • Tracking error risk - portfolio is not identical to index, so might not track perfectly
  • ETFs that purchase derivatives have leverage risk as well as credit risk on derivatives
  • International ETF's might have currency and country risk
Real Estate Investment.  Real estate = land plus any permanently attached fixture.  Each is unique.  Fairly illiquid.

  • Outright Ownership - aka fee simple or free and clear equity - most straightforward form of investment.  Full ownership rights for an indefinite period.
  • Leveraged Equity Position - same as outright but with a loan attached.
  • Mortgages - investor is the holder of a mortgage loan and receives monthly principal and interest pmts of a borrower.  This is considered real estate investment because if the borrower defaults you have a home.
  • Aggregation Vehicles - RELPs, commingled funds, and REITs
High transaction costs and management fees.  Investments can't be separated or moved.  Not comparable directly to other properties.

Some indexes are available that track appraisal value rather than market value - appraisal value is less volatile.  But may not be appropriate in portfolio mean-variance optimization.

Other indexes are based on REIT performance.  REITs have similar vol to stock indexes and very highly correlated, therefore REITs as diversification tools are not great.  REIT returns are also levered so the actual returns of underlying real estate is not what is being measured.

Ability to protect against inflation is probably the biggest concern.  Some types of real estate are better than others for this.

Valuation of Real Estate


  • Cost Method - replacement cost of 'improvements' (use current construction costs) plus an estimate for the land.  Land is hard to value.  Market value may differ significantly from replacement cost depending on condition of the improvements.
  • Sales Comparison Method - price of a similar property or properties from recent transactions.  Make adjustments for unique characteristics.  Cannot be used in an illiquid market without recent transactions.  Hedonic Approach is more detailed - use a regression model quantifying specific characteristics and then apply it to the property.
  • Income Method - estimate net operating income (NOI = annual gross rental revenues - operating expenses) and divide by the market required rate of return.  Disadvantage is that it does not take into account changes in NOI or consider investor's tax implications.
  • Discounted After Tax Cash Flow Model - uses tax rates.  NPV = PV of after tax cash flows discounted at investors IRR, minus equity portion of the investment.  Only those with positive expected NPV should be invested in.
Calculating NOI
  • Multiply total potential rental revenue by occupancy and subtract operating costs
  • Depreciation and financing costs are NOT factored in
  • It is assumed that maintenance will keep the property in good condition and the value of property is independent of financing arrangements
  • Taxes that you subtract are PROPERTY taxes, not income taxes
Hedonic approach
  • Examples include proximity to downtown, vacancy rate, and building size
  • Multiply these each through by your property's characteristics and you have the value
Income Approach
  • Just take the NOI and divide it by the capitalization rate - super easy
After Tax Cash Flows, NPV and Yield
  • Example: NOI is 197,500.  Investor buys building for 1,850,000, putting down 20% cash and financing the remainder with mortgage at 10%.  Annual pmts on mortgage are $156,997 and the interest portion is fully deductible for income tax purposes.  Marginal income tax rate is 28%.  Depreciation is 45,000 per year.  Calculate after tax cash flows, NPV and yield.
Interest pmt is amt borrowed (1,480,000) times 10% = $148,000.  After tax net income = NOI less depreciation and interest, net of taxes = (197,000 - 45,000 - 148,000) * (1 - 0.28) = $3,240.

Now to get to cash flow you need to add back depreciation and subtract principal portion of the mortgage.  This is 3,240 + 45,000 - (156,997 - 148,000) = 39,243.

NPV - lay out all cash flows and take the PV, then subtract off the initial equity investment

Yield - lay out all the cash flows and find the IRR

Venture Capital Investing
Private, non-exchange traded equity investments in a business venture.  LPs usually.  High returns, highly illiquid and highly risky.  Can invest at any point from initial planning to an established firm ready to go public.

Stages
  • Seed stage - earliest, R&D
  • Early stage - startup (complete product development) and first stage (transition to commercial production and sales of product)
  • Formative stage - broad category, encompasses seed + early stage
  • Later stage - sales are underway but company still private.  "Second Stage" means investing in a company that is producing and selling but not making income.  "Third Stage" means funding a major expansion of the company.  Mezzanine or Bridge financing enables the company to take the steps necessary to go public.
    • Second and third stage are also called "expansion stage"
  • "Balanced Stage" covers all stages from seed to later
Characteristics
  • Illiquid
  • Long term horizon
  • Difficult to value
  • Limited data on historical risk/return/competing assets and ideas
  • Entrepreneurs don't always manage well
  • Fund manager incentives must align incentives for performance, not size
  • Market cycles and conditions are a main determinant of entrance and exit strategies
  • Extensive operations analysis is crucial
Valuation is difficult.  Most important factors are payoff at exit, timing of exit, and probability of failure.   

Computing NPV of a VC Project:
  • Calculate probability that the project succeeds to the end (multiply all conditional probabilities 1-p by each other)
  • Calculate NPV under case of total success and NPV under case of total failure (lose all equity)
  • Take probability weighted average NPV
Hedge Funds
  • Large variety of classes that strive for absolute returns
  • Means they simply seek to maximize returns in all market scenarios - not held to a specific benchmark or index
  • Most are LPs, LLCs or offshore corporations
  • Limited number of investors if you want to avoid regulation - usually minimum investment is $200,000 or more
  • Base fee usually around 1% of assets, regardless of performance - second component, incentive fee, is paid based on actual returns.  Might only be paid if beyond some bench rate (e.g. risk free).
  • Sometimes performance fees only paid after previous losses have been recouped
  • High water provision - incentives only paid based on returns over the highest value achieved over the life of the fund
  • These provisions might encourage managers to take on extra risk after periods of negative returns
Classes of Hedge Funds
  • Long/Short funds - largest category.  Can take long and short, use leverage, and invest worldwide.  By definition they are NOT market neutral - seek profit from greater returns on long than on shorts.
  • Market Neutral - long short funds that strive to hedge against general market moves.  Longs and shorts offset each other so the net effect is zero exposure to the market
  • Global Macro - bet on the direction of markets, currencies, interest rates, or other.  Typically highly leveraged and rely heavily on derivatives.
  • Event Driven - capitalize on some unique opportunity in the market and may involve investing in a distressed company or in a potential merger and acquisition situation
Funds of Funds - creating a fund which then invests in hedge funds
  • Benefits - investors with limited capital can invest in a portfolio of hedge funds.  Single investors can invest in more than one fund.
  • Disadvantages - fund of fund managers charge another fee on top of the HF fees.  Diversification decreases risk but also probably reward.  Managers might not be any better at selecting funds than you are.
Leverage in Hedge Funds
  • Can use margin account, borrow external funds, or just use securities that only require posting margin rather than full pmt
  • Risks involved in hedge funds
    • Illiquidity
    • Potential for mispricing (some assets are hard to value) - requires more cash for margin because broker dealers are conservative in their valuations
    • Counterparty risk - broker dealer is involved in almost every transaction which exposes the fund to credit risk
    • Settlement errors - counterparty might fail to deliver security as agreed on the settlement date
    • Short Covering - might have to cover shorts and repurchase securities at a price higher than where they originally sold
    • Margin calls - can result in forced selling of assets, possibly at a loss
Hedge Fund Performance
  • Generally lower risk than traditional equity investments
  • Higher Sharpe ratio (reward to risk) than traditional equities, and comparable to fixed income
  • Low correlation between performance of HF's and conventional investments.  Correlation is lower in bad markets and higher in good markets.
Hedge fund performance biases
  • Self-selection results in overestimation
  • Backfilling - funds with poor past performance are not included
  • Survivorship - only the good funds survive
  • Smoothed pricing of infrequently traded assets - this reduces reported volatility
  • Option like strategies - some strategies may have limited upside and unlimited downside.  Standard deviation and other traditional risk measures to not effectively account for assymetrical returns.
  • Fee structures / gaming - fund managers may take big risks, due to comp structures
Effect of survivorship bias is greater for HF industry because there are no reporting standard requirements.  This means you overstate returns.  Opposite effect on risk measures - highly volatile funds tend to fail more frequently and defunct funds are not included.  Because database only includes more stable funds that have survived, risk measure of hedge funds is understated.

Closely Held Companies
These are not publicly traded.  Held by a small group of owners.  Do not have to report and disclose like normal SEC companies.  Can be any legal entity (LLC, Scorp, etc.).  Choice of structure affects investors rights/responsibilities and therefore value of their investments.

When litigation arises there can be disputes as to value.  Definitions of intrinsic, fundamental, and fair value may differ by jurisdiction and there are no market transactions.   Valuation is therefore cash flow based.  Both purpose of valuation and the jurisdiction affect decision factors for value.  Three approaches.
  • Cost Approach - what is cost today to replace company's assets in their present state?
  • Comparables Approach - base value on market prices of similar companies
  • Income Approach - what is the NPV of discounted future cash flows?
To these base values, you might adjust for liquidity and marketability (discount further).  Might also need to discount if it is a minority interest and the benchmark is a controlling interest.  Conversely you might add a premium if the benchmark is a minority interest.

Distressed Investing
Similar to VC in terms of liquidity, time commitment, and involvement.

Commodities
Investing in commodities gives you exposure to an economy's production and consumption growth.  Swings in commodity prices are likely to be larger than swing in finished goods prices.

Motivation for investing in commodities is as an inflation protector or for near term speculation.  Passive investors will likely invest in a collateralized futures position.  This means taking a position in a future and pairing it with an investment in Treasuries equal to the value of the position.  Active investors might invest in futures to attempt to profit from economic growth.

Commodity linked equity investments (e.g. producers) are also strongly tied to commodity price changes.

Commodity linked bonds provide income as well as exposure.  Might be attractive to a fixed income investor who cannot invest in equities or commodities directly.

Sources of Return on a Collateralized Commodity Futures Position
Go long a specific futures contract, and purchase t-bills with a MARKET value equal to the CONTRACT value of the futures contract.  Any gains from the futures are used to buy more t-bills, and any margin calls are covered by selling t-bills.  Total return = percentage change in price of futures contract + percent interest earned on the T-bill.

Tuesday, October 30, 2012

Risk Management Applications of Options Strategies

Call Option Profits and Losses

  • Max loss for buyer of call is the premium
  • Breakeven for buyer of a call is strike PLUS premium
  • Profit potential is unlimited for call holder - loss of the writer is unlimited
  • Call holder will exercise WHENEVER stock price exceeds strike price at the expiration date - might even make a net loss, but a smaller net loss
  • Greatest profit a call writer can make is the $5 premium
  • Zero sum game, always
Put Option Profits and Losses
  • Max loss for buyer is again the premium
  • Max gain for buyer is strike LESS premium - this is also max loss for the seller
  • Breakeven is at strike minus option premium
  • Greatest possible profit for writer is the premium
  • Also a zero sum game
Put buyers think things are overvalued, call buyers think they are undervalued.

Writing Covered Calls - writing a call while holding the stock.  You think the price is not going up anytime soon, so you write calls to profit in the meantime.  You trade potential upside for the premium.
  • If stock finishes below original price, writer's loss will be offset by the premium
  • If stock finishes below STRIKE price, option is still worthless and writer gets GAIN PLUS PREMIUM up until the strike price 
  • If stock closes above strike price, the max gain is the same
  • Maximum loss is the full stock price, less the premium you gained
  • You are basically betting that the gains will not be as big as the call buyer thinks they will be
Protective Puts - buying a stock and also buying a put option.
  • Cuts your downside loss but leaves potential upside alone
  • Max loss occurs anywhere below the strike
  • You do not profit until stock rises enough to cover your premium (breakeven = strike plus premium)
  • Note: This is the same diagram as a long call!

Swap Markets and Contracts

Swaps are custom agreements, largely unregulated, not traded in secondary market.   Default risk is important.  Most participants are large institutions - rare for individuals to participate.

Swaps are big business - total notional value of swaps is ~$50 trillion

Plain Vanilla Swap - if I lend you $10,000 at floating rate and you lend me $10,000 at a fixed rate, we have created a swap.  There is no need to actually exchange the $10,000 or even the interest payments, only the differences.

Payments are usually netted except in currency swaps where amounts actually change hands.

Currency Swap - loans are in different currencies at respective rates.  Swap back the same amounts at the end.

Equity swap - have to specify when payments will be made (perhaps it is quarterly, e.g.).  I might promise to make payments equal to the return of a market over the quarter.  If the return is negative, my payment is negative - i.e. you pay me.  Again payments are netted.

Definition: A swap is an agreement to exchange a series of cash flows on period settlement dates over a certain period of time.  Party with greater liability pays the other party.

Length of swap is called TENOR.

Swap can be decomposed into a series of FRAs (forward rate agreements) that expire on the settlement dates

Terminating swaps (4 ways)

  • Mutual termination - cash payment by one party that is acceptable to the other party.
  • Offsetting contract - lock in the current loss and offset the rest of the contract.  Just like forwards. Will also expose to default risk (again, just like forwards).
  • Resale - unusual but it happens.  Sell the swap to another party, with permission of the current counterparty.
  • Swaption - this is an option to enter into a swap.  The option to enter into an offsetting swap provides an option to terminate the existing swap.  
Currency Swap
  • Might be motivated because an issuer wants to operate in a country but cannot raise debt in that country, and there is a foreign issuer with the exact opposite situation.
Fixed for Fixed Currency Swap
  • Notional principal is swapped at initiation
  • Interest payments are made WITHOUT netting.  If you got AUD at beginning, you pay interest in AUD.
  • At maturity you swap the notional principals again.
  • In a swap, each person might borrow from their local bank and then charge the counterparty a higher rate, recording a gain
Interest Rate Swap
  • Currency is same usually so principal is not swapped at inception
  • Payments are netted - no need to make full payment both ways
  • Floating rate is usually LIBOR or LIBOR plus a spread
  • (related note - a basis swap involves trading a floating rate for another floating rate)
  • No transfer of funds at conclusion, since there was no initial transfer of funds
  • SWAPS ARE A ZERO SUM GAME - what one party gains, the other loses
  • Formula for fixed rate payer's payment is below:
  • Days is days in the swap.  DON'T FORGET TO ADD MARGIN TO LIBOR IF APPLICABLE!!!

Fixed rate payer = the guy with fixed rates who wants to effectively be a floater

Equity Swaps
Return on an equity, portfolio, or index is paid each period by one party in exchange for a fixed OR floating rate payment.  Can be just capital return OR total return (i.e. include dividends).
  • Uniquely among swaps - can be floating on both sides, payment not known until end of quarter
  • If stock appreciates, holder must give appreciation to the fixed rate payer
  • If it goes down, fixed rate payer will give the holder the difference
  • Motivation for an equity swap is to protect a large capital gain in a single stock - but you also don't get to participate in any upside - you basically lock in the gain for a certain period
Example


Option Markets and Contracts

American option - any time (A = American = Any time)
European option - only at expiration (E = European = Expiration)

At expiration they are identical, but before this they have different values.  American option is more valuable than an otherwise equal European option - more flexible

Moneyness - 'in the money' if immediate exercise of the option would result in positive payoff

Call option - in the money if stock price exceeds strike price.  Out of money if strike exceeds stock price.  You are betting the price will go up (long/bull).

Put option - in the money if stock price is below the strike price.  Out of the money if strike price is below the stock price.  You are betting the price will go down (short/bear).

If strike = stock price, option is 'at the money'

Exchange traded aka listed options = regulated, standardized options backed by Options Clearing Corp for Chicago Board Options Exchange transactions.  LEAPS = long term equity anticipatory securities = longer than a year

OTC - less common, unregulated - mainly for big institutional buyers, similar to forwards mkts.

Financial options - equity options, index options, rates, currencies.  Strike can be YTM for bonds, an index level, or exchange rate.  Libor based interest rate options have payoffs based on difference between LIBOR at expiration and strike rate on the option.

Bond options - there are relatively few.  Mostly related to treasuries and OTC.  Can be deliverable or settle in cash.  Based on specific face value.  Buyer of a call will gain if interest rates FALL and bond prices rise.

Index Options - settles in cash, nothing is delivered, payoff made directly to option holder's account.  Amount of change in index level times contract multiplier is the amount paid.

Options on Futures - can have an option to call or put a future, i.e. an option to enter into the contract at a certain price.

Commodity options - options to buy physical assets at a fixed (strike) price.

Real options - capital investment projects can give company the flexibility to change a project's cash flows while in progress.  These real options have value.  Will be covered in level 2.

Interest rate options - similar to stock options except interest rate is the exercise price.  Similar to forward rate agreements in that there is no deliverable asset.  Settle in cash.  Mostly European options.  Amount of settlement is based on notional spread between strike and reference rate.  Payoff is one sided.  A long interest rate call option plus a short interest rate put option has the same payoff as an FRA (forward rate agreement).

Interest rate cap - a series of interest call options with expirations that correspond to the reset dates of a floating rate loan.  Caps place a maximum on the interest pmts of the loan.  Each option is called a caplet.

Interest rate floor - series of interest put options to protect a floating rate lender from a decrease in rates.  Each option is called a floorlet.

Interest rate collar - combines a cap and a floor.  Borrow may buy a cap and sell a floor to defray some of the cost of the cap.

For things quoted in yields, you have to convert asset value to a dollar value and strike price to a dollar strike price.  On indexes, you multiply by the multiplier specified in the contract.  Payoff on options is cash the option holder receives, and the resulting position is marked to market.

INTEREST RATE OPTIONS ARE DIFFERENT.  Call option on 90 day rate for example is based on difference between LIBOR and strike rate, TIMES 90/360.  Payment is NOT made at expiration but 90 days later (matches when one would usually have a coupon pmt due).

Intrinsic Value - amount by which an option is in the money.  If at or out of money it has no intrinsic.  Intrinsic is the amount you would receive if you exercise.

Time Value - the amount by which an option premium exceeds intrinsic value.  The 'speculative' value of an option.  Total option value = Time Value + Intrinsic Value.  When an option reaches expiration there is no 'time' value left.  Longer the time value, the greater the premium typically, for American options and USUALLY for European options.

Minimum and Maximum Values of Options
Lower bound for ANY option is zero - will never sell for less than its intrinsic value.  Applies to both American and European options.

Max value for either American or European CALL is the time-t share price of the underlying stock - because noone would pay more than the underlying asset price for the option, they would just buy the underlying asset

Upper Bound for PUTS - American: this is the strike price.  This is the price in the event the underlying stock goes to 0.  For EUROPEAN - you don't get the strike until time t - so you take the strike price and discount the strike price by (1+RFR)^t and this is the upper boundary for the European.

These are all the THEORETICAL bounds - the most permissive.  Next we will do more restrictive.

American Style - minimum of call = max[0, S-X].  Minimum of put = max[0, X-S]

European Style call is more complex - figure out by use of a portfolio.  Will skip derivation here.  Result is that lower bound for European option is c>=max[0, S - X/(1+RFR)^T]

The lower bound on an American call is at least as much as the lower bound on a European call.  It is the same formula.

Minimum Bound of European Put: p >= max[0, X / (1+RFR)^T - S].  This lower bound will always be lower than the similar American because the American has the option to call at any time it is in the money and NOT discount the payoff.  Therefore the lower bound on an American put is just P >= max[0, X - S].


Puts: Higher exercise price = good.  Put prices are DIRECTLY related to exercise price.

Calls: Lower exercise price = good.  Call prices are INVERSELY related to exercise price. 

In general MORE TIME to expiration = good.  May have little effect if far out of the money but the longer option will have NO LESS value than the shorter option.  BUT you cannot state this necessarily for a European put - no definite relationship there.  There is more volatility (value) but also greater discounting.  If volatility is really high and discounting is low the value might be higher for a longer option.  Low vol and high discounting has the opposite effect.

PUT CALL PARITY FOR EUROPEAN OPTIONS
Fiduciary Call = Bond paying X at maturity + call with exercise price X.  It is the same X.  Payoff is X when out of the money, and X + (S - X) = S when the call is in the money.

Protective Put = share of stock plus a put option on the stock.  Payoff is (X - S) + S = X when put is in money, and S when put is out of the money.

Put Call Parity Formula:  c + X/(1+RFR)^T = S + p
You can use this to strip out each part of the formula.  The call plus the value of the risk free bond (PV of X) must equal the stock price plus put price.  Isolating each variable (X/(1+RFR)^T) is one variable) tells you the 'synthetic equivalent' of that variable.

Key assumptions are that these are European options, and that the put and call must have the same exercise price for these to hold.

Note that the SIGN in front of each position indicates an long or short.

Ex. for S = c - p + X/(1+RFR)^T

you are saying that a long stock position (S) is equivalent to being long a call, short a put, and long a position in a risk free bond.

Put call parity is bad ass.  Just wanted to say that.

There is NO REASON to use an American call option early if it is a non-dividend paying stock (you have to subtract the full strike price rather than just the discounted price).  On dividend paying stocks this is not necessarily the case - you might want to chuck the stock before a dividend date if the dividend will decrease the price of the stock (remember options are not typically adjusted for dividends).

American Puts - you MIGHT want to use these early if the stock is in bankruptcy - better to get X now than at expiration.  Similarly a low stock price might make an American put 'worth more dead than alive.'

If you have additional cash flows over the period of an option this effectively reduces the stock price of the asset.  So in the lower bound and put call parity formulas, substitute (S - pvcf) for S.

Effect of Interest Rates:
Interest Rate Increases = Call Increases, Put Decreases (holding price constant)
The put call parity formulas make this relationship obvious - increasing and decreasing RFR shows the relationship.  Note that this does not necessarily apply to interest rate or bond/tbill options where change in rate might change price of the underlying asset.

Greater volatility increases the value of both puts and calls due to the one sided nature of options - you get additional upside value for no additional downside value.

Saturday, October 27, 2012

Futures Markets and Contracts

Futures are a lot like forwards, but more institutionalized.  They trade on organized exchanges (forwards do not).  They are highly standardized (forwards are not).  A single clearinghouse serves as the counterparty.  They are regulated by the government (futures are not).

Uniformity promotes market liquidity.

Speculator vs Hedger - speculator seeks to gain, hedger seeks to manage his own risk.

Clearinghouse acts as the buyer for every seller, and the seller for every buyer.  All traders can reverse their positions.  Also no worry about defaulting.

Buying on Margin
In stocks/bonds, margin is a percentage of the market value of the asset.

In futures, margin is a performance guarantee.  There is no loan or interest charges.  Traders must post margins and settle their accounts on a daily basis.

Initial margin - money that must be deposited before any trading takes place.

Maintenance margin - amount of margin that must be maintained.  If you fall below this, you have to get back up to INITIAL margin, not just maintenance margin - different than equity accounts.

Variation margin - funds that need to be deposited to bring account back to initial.  If account margin is above initial margin, you can take funds out or use the margin for additional positions.

Settlement price is NOT just the last trade - it is the average of prices of trades over the last period of trading (aka the closing period) and is set by the exchange.  Prevents manipulation by traders.

Leverage is much higher in futures accounts (vis a vis equity accounts I assume) because the margin is lower typically.

Price Limits - prices on futures can only move within a specified band each day.  If eq price is above or below, no trades will take place.  A full move is called a limit move.

Marking to market - process of adjusting the margin balance based on the price movements that day.  Gains and losses due to price changes accrue directly to margin account, and if you go below the maintenance margin you have to put in cash to get back to the initial margin.

How to terminate prior to expiration (4 ways):

  • Delivery (rare) - actually delivering prior to expiration
  • In cash settlement, delivery is not an option (sooooo...how does this terminate the contract?)
  • Make a "Reverse" trade in the futures market - this is the most common.  This is called a closing trade.  The counterparty is the clearinghouse.
  • Exchange for Physicals - find a trader with an opposite position and settle up between yourselves.  Contact the clearinghouse and tell them what happened.  Different from delivery.
Delivery Options in Futures - some futures allow the short party options on what, when and where to deliver.  Options can be of significant value.

T-Bill Future Contracts - quoted as 100 minus annualized discount.  Ex, price of 98.50 on a 90 day bill means an annual discount of 0.0150 and an actual discount of 0.0150 * (90/360) = 0.00375 and a delivery price of 996,250.  T-bills are not as important as they used to be - big global issuers tend to look to Eurodollar futures more these days.

Eurodollar Futures - based on 90 day LIBOR.  This is an add on yield rather than a discount yield.  However prices follow the T-Bill convention and equal 100 - annualized LIBOR in percent.  Minimum price is 1 'tick' or 0.01%.  A quote of 97.60 corresponds to an annual LIBOR of 2.4% and an effective 90 day yield of 2.4% * (90 / 360) = 0.6%.  Each price change tick e.g. 98.52 to 98.51 is a $25 change per $1 mm contract.

Treasury Bonds Futures Contracts - bonds greater than 15 yrs.  Face of $100,000.  Deliverable.  Quoted as a percent and fractions of a percent (1/32 increments).  Short has option to deliver one of several bonds and will deliver the cheapest - so this option is valuable.  Each bond has a conversion factor - adjusts the long's payment at delivery so that more valuable bonds receive higher pmt.  Long pays futures price times the conversion factor (multiplier).

Stock Index Futures - Most popular is S&P 500 index in Chicago.  Cash settlement, based on multiplier of 250.  Index level of 1,000.  Each contract worth $250,000.  Each index point = $250 change.  Multipliers can vary for other contracts.

Currency Futures - smaller than the currency forwards mkt.  Contracts are set in units of the foreign currency and quoted in the domestic currency.  Peso contract is MXP 500,000 and Euro is EUR 125,000.  A change of 0.0001 USD in MXP is a loss of 50 USD on the MXP 500,000 unit and a loss of 12.50 USD on the EUR 125,000 unit.

Forward Markets and Contracts

Forward Contracts

Bilateral contract - typically no cost to enter (whereas futures require margin posting to guarantee performance)

If expected future price of the asset goes up, right to buy at the contract price will increase in value.

Usually entered into to hedge a current risk

Party that agrees to buy has a LONG FORWARD position - the long of the contract

Party that sells or deliveres has the SHORT FORWARD position - the short of the contract

In a forward, one side owes and the other side is owed the equal amount.

Cash settlement - just pay the difference to the other party.

Termination - enter into opposite forward contract.  You lock in your current loss, and enter into an agreement to buy one at one price and sell one at another price at the settlement date.

Problem though - if you are with another counterparty, you now have credit risk.
Alternative is to just enter into the offsetting contract with the original counterparty.  In fact the equivalent would be to pay present value of the difference to the other party.  If required payment is larger than this, must consider whether to pay it or take on additional credit risk.

Dealer vs. End User - end users are corporations, govt units, institutions.  Dealers are banks and non-bank financial institutions who make markets and profit from the bid/ask spreads.

Equity forward contract - can do both for equities and for portfolios.  Usually excludes dividends but can include these too.  If price of equity goes up, short must pay the difference to the long, and vice versa.

On bonds must settle forward contracts before the maturity date.  For Zero Coupons, settlement price is based on the discount.  E.g. 90 day T-bill quoted at 4% discount basis yield means discount is 4% * 90/360 = 1%, so the price is 99.  On coupon bearing bonds, price is usually stated as YTM exclusive of accrued interest.

Eurodollar Deposit - deposits OUTSIDE the US denominated in Dollars.  Lending rate of these deposits is LIBOR.  360 day yr.  EURIBOR is the equivalent rate for Euros, published by ECB.

Forward Rate Agreement - a forward contract to borrow or lend money at a certain rate at some future date.  In practice these settle in cash (no actual loan is ever made).  Creditworthiness is not an issue except for settlement amount to be paid.

  • Long position = the would be borrower.  They benefit if rates go up because they can borrow at a cheaper rate.
  • Short position = the would be lender.  They benefit if rates go down because they can lend at above market rates.
Cash payment for settlement of a FRA is the PV of the interest 'savings.'













Currency Forward Contracts
Agree to exchange a certain amount of one currency for certain amount of another at a future date.  Can be deliverable or settled in cash.

You lock in at a current rate, and transfer the risk to another party.  At settlement, if you have gained, you have to give that gain to the counterparty.  If you have lost, the counterparty must pay you. 

Derivative Markets and Instruments

Study session 17 of Schweser Notes

Derivative - derives its value from the value or return of another asset or security

Can be exchange traded - standardized and backed by a clearinghouse

Forwards and swaps have no central location, created ad hoc.  This is OTC.  Largely unregulated.

Some options trade in OTC market, esp bonds.

Forward commitment - promise to perform some action in future

Options differ from forwards in that they depend on hitting some threshold exercise price.  You need two options to replicate a future or forward.

Forward contract - one party buys and one party sells at a future date at a given price.  Lock in today's price.

Futures are well regulated forwards.  Futures trade actively in a secondary market.

Swap - a series of forward contracts.  E.g. floating/fixed swap, currency swap, etc.

Call option - call holder can call in a bond, and seller of call has obligation to deliver if exercised.

Put option - put holder can sell bond, and put seller has obligation to buy if exercised.

Benefits of derivatives - provide price information, allow risk management, and reduce transaction costs.

Law of One Price - two securities with identical cash flows (regardless of future events) should have the same price.  Buy the underpriced asset and sell short the other.

Other arbitrage opportunity is when you combine two assets to earn more than the risk free rate.  Borrow at the risk free and buy the portfolio of the two assets.  Payoff will cover the loan.


Thursday, October 25, 2012

Update

So at this point I've gone through all of the materials save for derivatives and alternative investments, which I'll approach a bit later given the relatively low priority in the exam and the fact that the material is pretty quick (180 pages of CFAI material).  My approach went something like this.  I first started with the CFAI materials, reading them on my computer and taking notes alongside in the blog posts.  This proved to be a pretty effective method.  After ethics and the first quant section, I switched over to Schweser and used those to study probability, micro/macro, financial reporting and analysis, and corporate finance/portfolio management.  I found that Schweser offered very concise summaries and focused on the formulas and gave good context for how to use things in the exam.

Partly because I was traveling back to the US over the last few weeks, for the Equity and Fixed Income topics I used the physical CFAI book - old school I know.  I made an effort to read slowly and carefully and underline as I went along.  It took probably two weeks but I managed to read the entire book, cover to cover, and do just about every problem set.  The only downside of this is that I don't have all of these sections summarized online now, but I think the tradeoff was fair.  Equity and Fixed Income are a major portion of the exam, and worth learning thoroughly through the primary sources in my opinion.

Some things I learned from equity and fixed income:

  • Be very careful to think about the number of periods you are discount - e.g. if a $5,000 perpetuity is delayed so it pays its first payment at t=5, what is its present value assuming a 10% discount rate?  Part 1 is easy - 5,000/0.10 = 50,000.  But then you discount this by 4 years, not 5, to get PV at t=0.  This is because an ordinary annuity pays at the end of the year.  Thus, an annuity that pays its first payment at t=5 is an annuity that starts at t=4.  These little things are the devil in present value problems.
  • Fixed income is complicated and even though I worked in debt for 3 years I feel like I need a tutor to explain to me in lay terms the differents between spot, forward, and other rates - the calculations are quite painstaking and it will be interesting to see in practice exams how these concepts actually come about.
  • Portfolio management formulae are difficult but not impossible with some repetition.  The fact that the formulae are so long (e.g. for calculating the variance of a portfolio) means that likely at most they would just give you numbers to plug into the primary formula, and not ask you to do manipulations like you would see in present value problems.  I'll likely only memorize the formulas for a two-security portfolio.
  • Some of the approaches in fixed income require trial and error - these problems are very time consuming and I'll be disappointed if I see them come up on the exam.  If I do, they will be left for last.
So in the next few days, my focus is going to be on spinning back through the materials one more time, and beginning to construct a cheat sheet to firm up some of the formulas in my head.  Yesterday I reviewed all of ethics and the first few parts of quantitative methods based on my blog entries.  Today I'll be continuing through quantitative methods and writing the formulas.  People seem to agree that making the sheet yourself is the best way to remember all the formulas and keep things straight.

Wednesday, October 10, 2012

Fixed Income - Risks Associated with Investing in Bonds

Reading 54 in CFAI materials

Bonds and fixed income are near and dear to my heart having worked in financial restructuring advisory in a past life.  As such I'll probably only write here things that are new/counterintuitive/special to me.

Lower coupon rate = more sensitive to changes in interest rate

Price of callable bond = price of option free - price of embedded call option

When interest rates rise, both the price of the option free and the price of the call option rise

Typically, callable bond will not increase by as much as noncallable, and will not decrease as much either

Higher bond yield means lower price sensitivity - lower yield bonds are more price sensitive in both percentage and absolute terms (all else equal)

  • Price sensitivity generally higher when market interest rates are low
  • Price sensitivity generally lower when market interest rates are high
Floaters
  1. If there is a long time to next reset, it will be more volatile
  2. If the general required margin changes, price will change
  3. Cap risk - if there is a cap, it basically behaves like a fixed rate security
Duration = percentage price change for a 100 bp change in yield

Rough formula: (price if yields decline - price if yields rise) / (2* initial price * change in yield)

Duration computation is only as good as the valuation model used to get the up/down prices

Dollar price change - just multiply by face value.  Change in dollars in response to 100 bp change is called dollar duration.

Yield curve risk - portfolios have different exposures to how the yield curve shifts - therefore any measure of interest rate risk that assumes all interest rates change by the same amount for all maturities is only an approximation (referred to as a parallel yield curve shift

Duration for a portfolio is an example - it's the same measure as a duration for a single security, but instead represents the change in the value of the portfolio when ALL yields change by the same amount

Rate duration (to be discussed later) - rate refers to interest rate of a particular security - this is a measure for a non-parallel shift in the yield curve where only that particular rate changes (e.g. the 5 year rate duration of 2 means that the portfolio's value would change by about 2% for a 100 bp change in the 5 yr yield)

There is not a single rate duration, but a rate duration for each maturity

Disadvantages of call options (aka Call Risk)
  1. Unpredictable cash flows
  2. Reinvestment risk - might not find as good a yield
  3. Price appreciation not as good as option free bond
Reinvestment risk - yields assume that funds can be reinvested at same rate

Reinvestment risk even greater for amortizing bonds - need to reinvest each month and borrowers can prepay every month, not just every 6 months

Means that zero coupons might be attractive - no reinvestment risk - but greater interest rate risk

Credit risk
  1. Default - risk that issuer will not pay timely interest/principal
  2. Credit spread - yields increase, price goes down; yield is made up of a risk free component and a premium above which is the yield spread.  Usually benchmarked to treasury.
    1. Risk of default component is called the credit spread
    2. Can apply to individual issues, industries, or economies
  3. Downgrade - unanticipated downgrade will increase the credit spread
Liquidity risk - might have to sell below its indicated value - mainly measured by bid ask spread.  Liquidity risk of an issue changes over time.  New structures are very risky because you don't know how liquid they will end up being.

Exchange rate risk - you are afraid that the currency of the bond you own will get weaker.  Ex, you are a US investor buying a Japanese bond.  If yen gets weak, when you get paid in yen this is bad because you can't buy as many dollars.

Volatility - the greater the volatility, the greater the value of an option
  • Price of Callable bond = price of option free - price of embedded call
    • Higher volatility decreases price of bond
  • Price of Putable bond = price of option free + price of embedded put
    • Higher volatility increases price of bond
Event risk
  • Natural disaster etc.
    • Similar to downgrade risk but downgrade is usually confined to one issuer
  • Corporate takeover/restructuring - RJR e.g. changed the environment of debt/LBOs
  • Regulatory - might need to dump certain securities
Sovereign - actions by government can increase default risk and/or credit spread - can be from 1) a foreign government's unwillingness to pay and 2) inability to pay.  Most are the latter.

End of reading.